Rewane: Nigeria Has Too Many Underutilised Airports

*Says only two are profitable, three handle 92% of air traffic 

*Foresees naira weakening to N1,900/$ with falling crude oil price

Dike Onwuamaeze

Amidst a growing trend of States across Nigeria investing in airport projects, the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Mr. Bismarck Rewane, has pointed out that only two of the 33 airports in the country are profitable.
Rewane also stated that only three airports in the country are responsible for handling 92 per cent of air traffic in Nigeria.  

The economist stated this in the May 2025 edition of his Lagos Business School breakfast session titled, “100 Days of Chaos or Genius: What a Difference 100 Days Can Make.”
Commenting on the Nigerian aviation sector, Rewane noted that Nigeria has 33 airports, 13 airstrips, four military airfields, and 128 helipads.

“However, only three airports handle 92 per cent of all traffic and only two airports are profitable.
 “Between 2017 –2019, Katsina Airport earned N250.8 million, spent N1.58billion; Ibadan Airport earned N349.2 million, spent N1.39 billion; Calabar Airport earned N540.8 million, and spent N2.5 billion.”
He declared that, “many airports are financially unsustainable, necessitating their concession.”
Rewane projected that not concessioning the airports as well as plus further forex depreciation would cause airfares to surge further while passenger traffic would continue to decline.

The outlook, according to him, was that, “airports stay inefficient and underfunded” resulting in “more flight cancellations and reduced frequencies” and weakening in the sector’s stability.  
He, however, projected that concessioning plus naira appreciation would ease airfares slightly, attract more investments to the airports, attract investment, and enhance infrastructure and service quality.

Rewane added that airlines would benefit from better ground support and turnaround times amidst passenger volume recovery as “profitability and growth outlook strengthen turnaround times.”
He also defined fiscal breakeven as the crude oil price at which oil revenue is equal to government spending, pointing out that “Nigeria’s fiscal breakeven is $60 per barrel.”    

Rewane stated that an oil price below $50 per barrel means fiscal pressure that could expand the country’s fiscal deficit between six and seven per cent, projecting that the Naira could weaken to between N1,800/$ and N1,900/$ if this happens.

In another scenario, he also highlighted that an oil price that is between $50 per barrel and $60 per barrel would amount to fiscal pressure, with fiscal deficit expanding to between four and five percent per cent, which could see the Naira weaken to N1,700/$ and N1,800/$.

Further analysis of crude oil price movement, Rewane noted that a crude oil price between $75 per barrel and $80 per barrel could be a fiscal consolidation and a return to status quo.
The CEO stated that Nigeria’s ability to meet its oil revenue targets was concerning as oil production declined by 4.76 per cent to 1.4mbpd in March 2025.

“Revenue target: N36.35 trillion, with 56 percent expected from oil sales (N20.36 trillion). However, actual production is below the budget benchmark by over 300,000 bpd.
“Global oil prices also fell sharply, trading slightly above $60pb in May 2025. So, Nigeria’s ability to meet its oil revenue targets is concerning,” Rewane said.

He also said that the future path of the Naira remained uncertain, adding that the drivers of exchange volatility are demand-supply imbalance, speculative activities, government payments and fiscal pressures and structural FX market issues.

Weighing in on development in the global economy, he stated that the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term was characterised by tumble, rumble and crumble.
He said: “Markets tumbled, losing 5-9 per cent; Investments and portfolios crumbled; global trade crumbled; the US economy (GDP growth) went from 2.4 per cent to -0.3 per cent.
“If there is one more quarter of negative growth, the world’s largest economy will be officially in recession.”